REDFLAGZ
An informational resource to help fantasy football players evaluate behavioral risk
Clevland Brown Rookie DT Micheal Hall arrested for Domestic Violence August 13th, 2024
2024 Draft Class Profiles
Current NFL Player Profiles
Historical NFL Player Profiles
Lawrence Phillips RB (High Risk)
Deceased, 1996-1999 St Louis Rams, Dolphins, 49ers,
I was at an in-person draft in Columbia, South Carolina in 1996 when one of the owners drafted Lawrence Phillips when I said, "he will be out of the league in two years". I was off by one year. The comment wasn't well received at the time.
There were significant and numerous red flags throughout his college and his pro career. Lawrence's tale is tragic and punctuated by severe trauma and violence. The core of Lawrence's behavior was consistent with domestic abuse, It is a learned behavior, and Lawrence was exposed to severe violence against his mother as well as himself by the violent men in his life. The severity of his behavior is also consistent with Intermittent Explosive Disorder and exaggerated trauma response.
With these severe problems, this was a high-risk pick as his struggles were very public at the University of Nebraska and the fantasy football owner who drafted him in 1996 received 201 touches for 660 yards and 5 touchdowns.
His tale came to a tragic end. He was sentenced to jail for 31 years to life for multiple crimes. Lawrence Phillips committed suicide at the age of 41 while in prison awaiting trial for the murder his cellmate.
Suicide Crisis Line
Additional 2024 NFL Draft Profiles
Additional Former NFL Player Profiles
Additional Current NFL Player Profiles
Tyreek Hill WR (High Risk)
Age 30, 2016-Present, Chiefs, Dolphins
Hill has engaged in some alarmingly violent but typical behavior of domestic abusers over his NFL and college career. He has so far avoided any suspensions from the NFL, but his violence against women can erupt at any time.
You are playing with fire if you own Hill. You are gambling on his talent and ability keeping him above the NFL law because further transgressions are all but inevitable in his case as long as he doesn't seek treatment. However, remember that this is Hill's age 30 season and WR peak performance comes between ages 23-30. Therefore, if there is a decline in his ability, teams and the NFL will be far less likely to put up with any transgressions. NFL and the teams will enable a player as long as the talent is there and the optics of the behavior are less than fan/sponsor backlash.
Fantasy Summary: I haven't seen any decline in speed or ability. His situation is optimal as WR 1 in a league-leading offense. I don't own Tyreek Hill in any of my dynasty leagues (remember I am risk averse) Before his age 30 season there would absolutely be circumstances where I would have rostered Hill but not at this stage of his career due to behavioral risk. The risks outweigh the investment capital I would pay to acquire him.
Best Case: Tyreek Hill to this point, No NFL Suspensions
Worst Case: Ray Rice-type career ending
Jermaine Burton WR (High Risk)
Age 22, pick 3.16 Bengals
Burton has displayed a consistently aggressive and antagonistic pattern of behavior throughout his college career. These reportedly include hitting a female in public, kicking an opponent, and aggressively taunting an opposing crowd. These behaviors seem born out of anger, defiance, and vindictiveness.
The most concerning aspect of assessing the risk of this behavior occurring again and affecting his NFL career is that there is a distinct pattern to this behavior rather than a single incident. In addition, when Burton released a statement regarding striking the opposing female fan, there was a total lack of accountability, an apology, or mention of the victim in the statement. His words were centered on himself only. This is very important when evaluating whether or not a person is committed to changing unhealthy behaviors. When someone is committed to change the first step really is acknowledging there is a problem. Before this happens this is considered the pre-contemplation or denial phase according to Procheska's stages of change,
My concern is that even if a specific incident doesn't result in suspension it is that he will never reach his full potential, and possibly bounce from team to team, or be released altogether. Because these negative behaviors could inhibit his ability to form sustained healthy relationships with coaches, teammates, and other league personnel.
Fantasy Summary: I can see why people are attracted to his straight-line speed and deep ball skills but the following draft report further reiterates his shortcomings in character as almost every aspect of his game is affected by low effort, poor route running, laziness in run blocking, and there is this quote "Temperament on the field is a red flag. Burton's shown volatile tendencies with taunting and needs to keep his cool under pressure" I am risk averse and therefore will not have any shares of Burton as I wouldn't take him until the 4/5th round or later in rookie drafts. He is currently going as high as the 2nd round in dynasty drafts. Especially, with more talented WRs available at this point in the draft like Adonai Mitchell, or Roman Wilson who don't carry the same behavioral risk.
Best Case: Joe Mixon No NFL suspensions
Worst Case: Kareem Hunt suspended 8 games (2019) or career flameout